Lasting gold price rise only if ETF outflows abate

via Commerzbank
Gold showed relative strength yesterday and gained for a time by $20 to near the $1,400 per troy ounce mark once again, finding support from a weaker US dollar and significantly falling stock markets. In the preceding weeks a firmer US dollar and continuously rising stock markets had weighed heavily on the gold price. No sustained recovery is likely to set in, however, until the strong outflows from the gold ETFs – which also persisted yesterday – abate. At the moment, ETF selling by for the most part institutional investors is still unequivocally outweighing the ongoing robust coin demand from retail investors. The German company Degussa Goldhandel GmbH, for example, recently reported continuing high levels of buying interest, stating that coin sales so far in May have been twice as high as the first-quarter average. Following the sharp fall in prices in April, in the wake of which coins were selling like hot cakes, coin sales were three times as high as the first-quarter average. In our opinion, there is likely to be continued interest in buying coins, and gold ETFs can also be expected to become more attractive again, for the latest price falls – some of them sharp – on some stock exchanges show that stock markets are by no means a one-way street. Any further stock price losses could thus stimulate interest in gold again.