Gold remains tarnished even after the latest recovery

via Commerzbank

Gold was able to buck the general downswing experienced by commodities on Friday and gained nearly $30 to reach $1,580 per troy ounce. The poor US labour market data reduce the probability of any premature termination of “QE3”, which put pressure on the US dollar and lent buoyancy to gold. Nonetheless, gold remains in difficulty for the time being following its previous slide to a ten-month low. This is evidenced not only by ongoing outflows from the gold ETFs, but also by the withdrawal of speculative financial investors, who cut their net long positions by 11.7 thousand to 44.2 thousand contracts in the week to 2 April. This puts them only just above the four-year low they hit in early March. The example of silver shows that this does not necessarily mean that the position reduction has come to an end. In the case of silver, in fact, there are now even net short positions. The last time this happened for a single week was in September 2007. Although this is unlikely to happen with gold, the reduction in net long positions could well continue. The October 2006 low was 10 thousand contracts. The low point for silver, on the other hand, should be more or less reached by now. By contrast, platinum and palladium saw net long positions further expanded in the same reporting week. They are now at a new record high in the case of palladium. The 5% slump in the price of palladium is thus presumably due to selling on the part of money managers.