Ukrainian Cossack dance to the Turkish piping
Due to Poroshenko's ventures, Ukraine runs the risk of turning into a Turkish enclave on the border with Europe one day.
German mass media outlets published an article analyzing the intricacies of the current Turkish policy. Among other things, some facts pivotal for Ukraine are touched on there. After the sudden chilling of the Turkish-Russian relationship in November, 2015, the cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine got powerful impetus, not only in economy but in military and political fields as well. Though after the failed coup attempt, Turkey changed drastically its political priorities, so we should now ask ourselves about the real strength margin of this cooperation and whether it actually compatible with the Ukrainian strategic agenda.
Facts are a stubborn thing and they insistently point to the situation-related status of Turkey in its partnership with Ukraine, no more than that. And, let's make a point of it; the partner is quite unreliable, set to roll over at any moment to embrace its immediate profit. Till July, 2016, Turkey had used to see the USA as one of its key strategic partners and stay firmly stick to its European integration course. After the coup attempt, the NATO membership of Turkey was no huddle on the way of Recep Erdoğan anymore when he decided to make a sudden twist in his country's political orientation. Turkey rushed into rapprochement with Moscow reanimating nearly all the frozen before projects, including South Stream.
At the same time the joint Turkish-Ukrainian projects just got hung up and are far from realization. In March, 2016, Erdoğan said at the press-conference after the talks with Poroshenko that Turkey is intensely interested in signing, as early as of this year, the agreement establishing a free trade zone with Ukraine. We have seen none so far. Such an agreement wouldn't be up to Moscow's liking at all. That's the reason. Similarly, a year and a half back, when on a visit to Kiev, Erdoğan came to some terms with our president on advancing some huge bilateral projects, aviation ones as well. They have been well shelved so far...
While developing its relations with Turkey, Ukraine has been also relying some hopes on the Turkish assistance in initiating the process of the Crimea counter-occupation to bring it back under the Ukrainian jurisdiction. These expectations were quite well grounded, given Turkish assurances, not empty at all, to take the side of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People. When Turkey was exercising this assistance aimed at maximum reducing of the Russian role in the Crimea, it was fully in the interests of Ukraine and it got the overwhelming support of the West and the USA. But the situation has changed dramatically since then.
After Mejlis had moved to the Kherson region, the known facts on the Turkish financial and political backing of the spies working for Chubarov and Dzhemilev got a basically different turn for Ukraine.
In the first run, we should ask ourselves if Moscow is going to have a blind eye on these facts. The sole possible answer is "no". Moreover, it will predictably demand that Turkey should recognize Crimea an integral part of Russia. And Turkey in its search of economic benefits may well agree to do this. Yes, it looks most probable Turkey will give its consent. Is this what Ukraine is really striving to? Sure, it isn't!
We should stay fully aware of the reality: Erdoğan has already betrayed Mejlis by transforming it from the tool of reducing Russian influence in the Crimea into the one to exert pressure on Ukraine. Thus, Dzhemilev when pursuing in the Verkhovna Rada the line to set the Crimean Tatar Autonomy in the Kherson region, is actually pushing Turkish agenda, not Ukrainian one, despite the fact that he is formally a citizen of Ukraine.
Now, there's some more food for thought. There are plans openly voiced by Dzhemilev in the Verhovna Rada providing for resettlement on the territory of the Kherson region of 500 thousand Tatars and 2 million of Meskhetian Turks. Is it Ukrainian or Turkish interests that prevail here?
Even Germans, who are not so much actually into the Ukrainian problems, can see that Tatars in Ukraine has been fulfilling the orders of Turkey at the expense of the Ukrainian interests. What does that establishment of the Crimean Tatar Autonomy on the southern borders of Ukraine stand for? It stands for maximum curbing of the local Ukrainians' interests, which, in its turn, amounts to preparing the basis for inevitable emergence, in the middle term perspective, of yet another Kosovo, another hot point in the world. A priceless present for Moscow, it is! It would be really an excellent excuse for Moscow to send its troops into the Kherson region of Ukraine under the pretext of fighting terrorists and keeping peace.
Does this sort of script correspond to the interests of Ukraine? Clearly, it doesn't. At present, in absence of any Crimean Tatars Autonomy, there are already numerous increased cases of robbery and violence towards local Ukrainian residents of the Kherson region on part of Mejlis representatives and Meskhetian Turks coming from Turkey.
On the walls and fences in Kherson region there keep appearing such slogans as "Kherson region is Turkey". The situation in southern parts of the Kherson region, in the adjacent areas near the cities of Kalanchak, Chaplynka, and Henichesk has been tense since last autumn.
But the Ukrainian authorities are vigorously trying to stay blind to it, evidently for sake of development and strengthening of the relations between Ukraine and Turkey.
Interestingly, the major recipient of the Turkish economic investments into Ukraine is the Kherson region itself. It's worth noting that while giving economic preferences to Ukraine Turkey makes it obligatory for Kiev to apply them exactly in the Kherson region via the leadership of the Crimean Tatars Mejlis. Meanwhile, these investments ensure the massive colonization of the Kherson region by Turkey-oriented "aggressive Ottoman element".
It appears, the leaders of the country want to see a reliable partner in Turkey very much, and maybe a strategic ally, too. So they just can't already distinguish reality from their dreams. Still objectively Turkey views Ukraine exclusively in the context of its own relations with Russia and the West.
German analysts believe that the relationship between Turkey and Moscow won't last long, while many Russian observers think that Turkey may well sacrifice its EU agenda to preserve the relations with Moscow. What appears to be really true to life is that Turkey is just obsessed with the idea of reanimating the Ottoman Empire and will act guided by its own interests.
If the advancement of relations with Moscow fits well the neo-Ottoman ambitions of Turkey, then it will continue developing them even at the expense of the relations with the EU. In case Brussels offers something more captivating, Turkey will step over its relations with Moscow. As for Ukraine or Mejlis, Recep Erdoğan views them as a jumping off ground and a tool correspondently, to entrench in the vicinity of the Eastern Europe borders and north approaches to Crimea.
It's no wonder that former Prime Minister of Turkey Turgut Özal once put it this way, "Turkey at the border of Greece and Turkey at the border of Germany – these are two different countries". Turkey has been moving nearer the borders of Germany, in particular boosting its presence in Ukraine via Dzhemilev and Chubarov. And Ukrainian president Poroshenko, while satisfying the whims of the Turkish mole Dzhemilev, is doing Cossack dance to the Turkish piping, figuratively speaking. It seems to be fatally missed on him that Ukraine is more and more transforming into the hostage of the imperial Turkish policy.
Nowadays the political processes in the world are rapid and virulent leaving no chance for naïve, bat-eyed politicians to correct the mistakes they make. That's why the Ukrainian president should reformat the relations with Turkey as soon as possible until it's too late and Ukraine, practically a European state, hasn't become a Turkish enclave on the border with Europe.
There are some amazing documents in the Appendix you may delve into.